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FK Minyor Pernik vs Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi — Third League - Southwest 2018

FK Minyor Pernik
FK Minyor Pernik
FT
1 – 0
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
2/22/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 18Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

FK Minyor Pernik68%
×Draw18%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Minyor Pernik
2.31
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
0.91

FK Minyor Pernik creates 154% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 78 away

creates per match

FK Minyor Pernik
2.25
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.09

allows per match

FK Minyor Pernik
0.73
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
2.37

finishing

FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Minyor Pernik ↓

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FK Minyor Pernik or draw
87%
FK Minyor Pernik or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
82%
Draw or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
32%

Winning margin

FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+
45%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals
90%
FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals
67%
FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals
40%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals
60%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals
23%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)
84%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Minyor Pernik at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.73 · 44 matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.37 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Minyor Pernik attack 2.25 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.31

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.09 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

FK Minyor Pernik scores more
68%
level
18%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more
13%

FK Minyor Pernik at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "FK Minyor Pernik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: FK Minyor Pernik 1–0 Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

FK Minyor Pernik beat Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on February 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Minyor in Pernik.