FK Minyor Pernik 3–0 Levski Krumovgrad

FK Minyor Pernik

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Levski Krumovgrad

B. Tyutyukov 88'

K. Yosifov 68'

M. Orachev 5'

8/2/2022

Second League · Round 3Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

FK Minyor Pernik41%

×Draw29%

Levski Krumovgrad31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Minyor PernikExpected goals in this matchLevski Krumovgrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.01

FK Minyor Pernik

1.21

Levski Krumovgrad

1.01

FK Minyor Pernik creates 20% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 17 away

1.24

creates per match

1.18

0.85

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

FK Minyor Pernik

1.24

Levski Krumovgrad

1.18

allows per match

FK Minyor Pernik

0.85

Levski Krumovgrad

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Minyor Pernik ↓

Levski Krumovgrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

FK Minyor Pernik or draw

69%

FK Minyor Pernik or Levski Krumovgrad

71%

Draw or Levski Krumovgrad

59%

Winning margin

FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+

18%

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals

70%

FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals

34%

FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals

12%

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals

64%

Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals

27%

Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)

57%

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Minyor Pernik at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.85 · 84 matches

Levski Krumovgrad away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Minyor Pernik attack 1.24 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Levski Krumovgrad attack 1.18 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FK Minyor Pernik scores more

41%

level

29%

Levski Krumovgrad scores more

31%

FK Minyor Pernik at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FK Minyor Pernik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

M. Orachev

29'

D. Yashar

32'

P. Batsukis

40'

V. Uzunov

58'

B. Tyutyukov← P. Bakoutsis

58'

H. Kazakov← A. Pramatarov

62'

Henrique Devens← G. Trifonov

68'

K. Yosifov

71'

T. Andreev← V. Uzunov

76'

A. Stoimenov← D. Yashar

78'

K. Slishkov← K. Yosifov

80'

K. Slishkov

88'

B. Tyutyukov

89'

A. Slavchev← M. Kostov

89'

S. Georgiev← E. Tsenov

FK

Levski

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Yosifov

Manager: H. Yanev

58'▲B. Tyutyukov←▼P. Bakoutsis

58'▲H. Kazakov←▼A. Pramatarov

78'▲K. Slishkov←▼K. Yosifov

89'▲A. Slavchev←▼M. Kostov

89'▲S. Georgiev←▼E. Tsenov

FK Minyor Pernik substitutes

TyutyukovKazakovSlishkovSlavchevGeorgievLeontievIvanov

Manager: A. Vavalis

62'▲Henrique Devens←▼G. Trifonov

71'▲T. Andreev←▼V. Uzunov

76'▲A. Stoimenov←▼D. Yashar

Levski Krumovgrad substitutes

DevensAndreevStoimenovBadanovYuseinIvanovRadev

Match Recap: FK Minyor Pernik vs Levski Krumovgrad

FK Minyor Pernik beat Levski Krumovgrad 3-0 in Second League on August 2, 2022.

Goals: M. Orachev (5'), K. Yosifov (68'), B. Tyutyukov (88').

The match was played at Stadion Minyor in Pernik.

FK Minyor Pernik vs Levski Krumovgrad — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: FK Minyor Pernik vs Levski Krumovgrad