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FK Minyor Pernik vs Kostinbrod — Third League - Southwest 2018

FK Minyor Pernik
FK Minyor Pernik
FT
1 – 0
Kostinbrod
Kostinbrod
11/3/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 16Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

FK Minyor Pernik61%
×Draw22%
Kostinbrod17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Minyor Pernik
1.94
Kostinbrod
0.92

FK Minyor Pernik creates 111% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 70 away

creates per match

FK Minyor Pernik
2.25
Kostinbrod
1.10

allows per match

FK Minyor Pernik
0.73
Kostinbrod
1.64

finishing

FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par
Kostinbrod+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Minyor Pernik ↓

Kostinbrod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FK Minyor Pernik or draw
83%
FK Minyor Pernik or Kostinbrod
78%
Draw or Kostinbrod
39%

Winning margin

FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+
37%
Kostinbrod wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals
86%
FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals
58%
FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals
30%
Kostinbrod 1+ goals
60%
Kostinbrod 2+ goals
23%
Kostinbrod 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)
78%
Kostinbrod (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Minyor Pernik at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.73 · 44 matches

Kostinbrod away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.64 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Minyor Pernik attack 2.25 + Kostinbrod defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.94

Kostinbrod attack 1.10 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

FK Minyor Pernik scores more
61%
level
22%
Kostinbrod scores more
17%

FK Minyor Pernik at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "FK Minyor Pernik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FK Minyor Pernik 1 – 0 Kostinbrod

FK Minyor Pernik beat Kostinbrod 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Minyor in Pernik.