FK Minyor Pernik 2–2 Hebar 1918: Result & Stats

FK Minyor Pernik

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Hebar 1918

B. Vasev 80', 10'

E. Ignatov 49'

T. Chavorski 13' (pen)

5/7/2021

Second League · Round 31Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

FK Minyor Pernik42%

×Draw28%

Hebar 191830%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Minyor PernikExpected goals in this matchHebar 1918

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.07

FK Minyor Pernik

1.31

Hebar 1918

1.07

FK Minyor Pernik creates 22% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 56 away

1.24

creates per match

1.29

0.85

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

FK Minyor Pernik

1.24

Hebar 1918

1.29

allows per match

FK Minyor Pernik

0.85

Hebar 1918

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par

Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Minyor Pernik ↓

Hebar 1918 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FK Minyor Pernik or draw

70%

FK Minyor Pernik or Hebar 1918

72%

Draw or Hebar 1918

58%

Winning margin

FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+

19%

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals

73%

FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals

38%

FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals

14%

Hebar 1918 1+ goals

66%

Hebar 1918 2+ goals

29%

Hebar 1918 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)

58%

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Minyor Pernik at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.85 · 84 matches

Hebar 1918 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Minyor Pernik attack 1.24 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Hebar 1918 attack 1.29 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FK Minyor Pernik scores more

42%

level

28%

Hebar 1918 scores more

30%

FK Minyor Pernik at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FK Minyor Pernik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

B. Vasev

13'

D. Leontiev

13'

T. ChavorskiPenalty

18'

Z. Petkov

28'

G. Karakashev

46'

K. Iliev← G. Karakashev

49'

E. Ignatov

52'

A. Vasev

58'

K. Yosifov← L. Hristov

60'

I. Lazarov← N. Yankov

60'

S. Manevski← Z. Petkov

64'

M. Budinov← B. Budinov

70'

Z. Hadzhiev

74'

Y. Todorov← O. Hamdiev

80'

T. Tonev

80'

B. Vasev

84'

S. Papazov← Z. Hadzhiev

90+1'

V. Vasev

FK

Hebar

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: H. Yanev

58'▲K. Yosifov←▼L. Hristov

64'▲M. Budinov←▼B. Budinov

FK Minyor Pernik substitutes

YosifovBudinovGeorgievKyuchukovChilikovBozhilovRaychev

Manager: N. Mitov

46'▲K. Iliev←▼G. Karakashev

60'▲I. Lazarov←▼N. Yankov

60'▲S. Manevski←▼Z. Petkov

74'▲Y. Todorov←▼O. Hamdiev

84'▲S. Papazov←▼Z. Hadzhiev

Hebar 1918 substitutes

IlievLazarovManevskiTodorovPapazovNikolovDebarliev

Match Recap: FK Minyor Pernik vs Hebar 1918

FK Minyor Pernik and Hebar 1918 drew 2-2 in Second League on May 7, 2021.

Goals: B. Vasev (10', 80'), T. Chavorski (13' pen), E. Ignatov (49').

The match was played at Stadion Minyor in Pernik.

FK Minyor Pernik vs Hebar 1918 — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: FK Minyor Pernik vs Hebar 1918