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FK Minyor Pernik vs CSKA 1948 Sofia II — Second League 2018

FK Minyor Pernik
FK Minyor Pernik
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
8/19/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 5Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

FK Minyor Pernik40%
×Draw28%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Minyor Pernik
1.25
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.10

FK Minyor Pernik creates 14% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 71 away

creates per match

FK Minyor Pernik
1.24
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.35

allows per match

FK Minyor Pernik
0.85
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.25

finishing

FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par
CSKA 1948 Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Minyor Pernik ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FK Minyor Pernik or draw
68%
FK Minyor Pernik or CSKA 1948 Sofia II
72%
Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia II
60%

Winning margin

FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+
17%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals
71%
FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals
36%
FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals
13%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1+ goals
67%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2+ goals
30%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)
55%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Minyor Pernik at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.85 · 84 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.25 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Minyor Pernik attack 1.24 + CSKA 1948 Sofia II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

CSKA 1948 Sofia II attack 1.35 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FK Minyor Pernik scores more
40%
level
28%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II scores more
32%

FK Minyor Pernik at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FK Minyor Pernik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Minyor Pernik vs CSKA 1948 Sofia II

FK Minyor Pernik beat CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1-0 in Second League on August 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Minyor in Pernik.