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FK Liepaja vs Panevėžys — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
1/17/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadions Zvejnieku aleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FK Liepaja46%
×Draw24%
Panevėžys30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Liepaja
1.65
Panevėžys
1.30

FK Liepaja creates 27% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

FK Liepaja
1.89
Panevėžys
0.60

allows per match

FK Liepaja
2.00
Panevėžys
1.40

finishing

FK Liepaja+0.00on par
Panevėžys+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Liepaja ↓

Panevėžys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FK Liepaja or draw
70%
FK Liepaja or Panevėžys
76%
Draw or Panevėžys
54%

Winning margin

FK Liepaja wins by 2+
24%
Panevėžys wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FK Liepaja 1+ goals
81%
FK Liepaja 2+ goals
49%
FK Liepaja 3+ goals
23%
Panevėžys 1+ goals
73%
Panevėžys 2+ goals
37%
Panevėžys 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FK Liepaja (draw refunded)
60%
Panevėžys (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Liepaja at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

Panevėžys away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Liepaja attack 1.89 + Panevėžys defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.65

Panevėžys attack 0.60 + FK Liepaja defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FK Liepaja scores more
46%
level
24%
Panevėžys scores more
30%

FK Liepaja at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FK Liepaja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: FK Liepaja 2–1 Panevėžys

FK Liepaja beat Panevėžys 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadions Zvejnieku aleja in Liepāja.