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FK Liepaja vs Metta / LU — Virsliga 2026

FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Metta / LU
Metta / LU
6/21/2025VirsligaVirsliga · Round 19Daugavas stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

FK Liepaja56%
×Draw22%
Metta / LU22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Liepaja
1.98
Metta / LU
1.18

FK Liepaja creates 68% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 107 away

creates per match

FK Liepaja
1.61
Metta / LU
1.00

allows per match

FK Liepaja
1.36
Metta / LU
2.34

finishing

FK Liepaja+0.00on par
Metta / LU+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Liepaja ↓

Metta / LU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FK Liepaja or draw
78%
FK Liepaja or Metta / LU
78%
Draw or Metta / LU
44%

Winning margin

FK Liepaja wins by 2+
33%
Metta / LU wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FK Liepaja 1+ goals
86%
FK Liepaja 2+ goals
59%
FK Liepaja 3+ goals
31%
Metta / LU 1+ goals
69%
Metta / LU 2+ goals
33%
Metta / LU 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FK Liepaja (draw refunded)
71%
Metta / LU (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Liepaja at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.36 · 116 matches

Metta / LU away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.34 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Liepaja attack 1.61 + Metta / LU defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.98

Metta / LU attack 1.00 + FK Liepaja defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FK Liepaja scores more
56%
level
22%
Metta / LU scores more
22%

FK Liepaja at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FK Liepaja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Virsliga: FK Liepaja 1–0 Metta / LU

FK Liepaja beat Metta / LU 1-0 in Virsliga on June 21, 2025.

The match was played at Daugavas stadions.