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FK Kukesi vs VfL Wolfsburg — UEFA Europa League 2018

FK Kukesi
FK Kukesi
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
9/17/2020UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying RoundZeqir Ymeri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FK Kukesi28%
×Draw25%
VfL Wolfsburg47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Kukesi
1.19
VfL Wolfsburg
1.60

VfL Wolfsburg creates 34% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

FK Kukesi
1.25
VfL Wolfsburg
1.71

allows per match

FK Kukesi
1.50
VfL Wolfsburg
1.14

finishing

FK Kukesi+0.00on par
VfL Wolfsburg+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Kukesi ↓

VfL Wolfsburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FK Kukesi or draw
53%
FK Kukesi or VfL Wolfsburg
75%
Draw or VfL Wolfsburg
72%

Winning margin

FK Kukesi wins by 2+
12%
VfL Wolfsburg wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

FK Kukesi 1+ goals
70%
FK Kukesi 2+ goals
33%
FK Kukesi 3+ goals
12%
VfL Wolfsburg 1+ goals
80%
VfL Wolfsburg 2+ goals
47%
VfL Wolfsburg 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

FK Kukesi (draw refunded)
38%
VfL Wolfsburg (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Kukesi at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

VfL Wolfsburg away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Kukesi attack 1.25 + VfL Wolfsburg defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.71 + FK Kukesi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FK Kukesi scores more
28%
level
25%
VfL Wolfsburg scores more
47%

VfL Wolfsburg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "VfL Wolfsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Kukesi vs VfL Wolfsburg

VfL Wolfsburg beat FK Kukesi 4-0 in UEFA Europa League on September 17, 2020.

The match was played at Zeqir Ymeri Stadium in Kukes.