FK Kukesi 2–1 Slavia Sofia: Result & Stats

FK Kukesi

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Slavia Sofia

8/27/2020

UEFA Europa League · 1st Qualifying RoundZeqir Ymeri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FK Kukesi37%

×Draw29%

Slavia Sofia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK KukesiExpected goals in this matchSlavia Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.08

FK Kukesi

1.13

Slavia Sofia

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.25

creates per match

0.67

1.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

FK Kukesi

1.25

Slavia Sofia

0.67

allows per match

FK Kukesi

1.50

Slavia Sofia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Kukesi+0.00on par

Slavia Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Kukesi ↓

Slavia Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

FK Kukesi or draw

66%

FK Kukesi or Slavia Sofia

71%

Draw or Slavia Sofia

63%

Winning margin

FK Kukesi wins by 2+

15%

Slavia Sofia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FK Kukesi 1+ goals

68%

FK Kukesi 2+ goals

31%

FK Kukesi 3+ goals

11%

Slavia Sofia 1+ goals

66%

Slavia Sofia 2+ goals

29%

Slavia Sofia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

FK Kukesi (draw refunded)

52%

Slavia Sofia (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Kukesi at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Slavia Sofia away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Kukesi attack 1.25 + Slavia Sofia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Slavia Sofia attack 0.67 + FK Kukesi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FK Kukesi scores more

37%

level

29%

Slavia Sofia scores more

34%

FK Kukesi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FK Kukesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff