Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FK Kukesi vs Pogradeci — 1st Division 2019

FK Kukesi
FK Kukesi
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Pogradeci
Pogradeci
1/10/20251st Division1st Division · Round 18Kukës Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

FK Kukesi38%
×Draw27%
Pogradeci36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Kukesi
1.29
Pogradeci
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 73 away

creates per match

FK Kukesi
1.17
Pogradeci
1.15

allows per match

FK Kukesi
1.34
Pogradeci
1.41

finishing

FK Kukesi+0.00on par
Pogradeci+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Kukesi ↓

Pogradeci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FK Kukesi or draw
64%
FK Kukesi or Pogradeci
73%
Draw or Pogradeci
62%

Winning margin

FK Kukesi wins by 2+
17%
Pogradeci wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FK Kukesi 1+ goals
72%
FK Kukesi 2+ goals
37%
FK Kukesi 3+ goals
14%
Pogradeci 1+ goals
71%
Pogradeci 2+ goals
36%
Pogradeci 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FK Kukesi (draw refunded)
51%
Pogradeci (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Kukesi at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

Pogradeci away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.41 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Kukesi attack 1.17 + Pogradeci defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.29

Pogradeci attack 1.15 + FK Kukesi defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FK Kukesi scores more
38%
level
27%
Pogradeci scores more
36%

FK Kukesi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FK Kukesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Kukesi vs Pogradeci

FK Kukesi beat Pogradeci 3-1 in 1st Division on January 10, 2025.

The match was played at Kukës Arena in Kukës.