FK Kukesi 4–2 Korabi Peshkopi: Result & Stats

FK Kukesi

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Korabi Peshkopi

2/14/2026

1st Division · Round 22Kukes Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

FK Kukesi38%

×Draw28%

Korabi Peshkopi34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK KukesiExpected goals in this matchKorabi Peshkopi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.14

FK Kukesi

1.23

Korabi Peshkopi

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 103 away

1.17

creates per match

0.93

1.34

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

FK Kukesi

1.17

Korabi Peshkopi

0.93

allows per match

FK Kukesi

1.34

Korabi Peshkopi

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Kukesi+0.00on par

Korabi Peshkopi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Kukesi ↓

Korabi Peshkopi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FK Kukesi or draw

66%

FK Kukesi or Korabi Peshkopi

72%

Draw or Korabi Peshkopi

62%

Winning margin

FK Kukesi wins by 2+

17%

Korabi Peshkopi wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FK Kukesi 1+ goals

71%

FK Kukesi 2+ goals

35%

FK Kukesi 3+ goals

13%

Korabi Peshkopi 1+ goals

68%

Korabi Peshkopi 2+ goals

32%

Korabi Peshkopi 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FK Kukesi (draw refunded)

53%

Korabi Peshkopi (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Kukesi at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

Korabi Peshkopi away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.29 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Kukesi attack 1.17 + Korabi Peshkopi defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Korabi Peshkopi attack 0.93 + FK Kukesi defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FK Kukesi scores more

38%

level

28%

Korabi Peshkopi scores more

34%

FK Kukesi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FK Kukesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff