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FK Kukesi vs Kastrioti Krujë — Superliga 2018

FK Kukesi
FK Kukesi
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë
2/13/2022SuperligaSuperliga · Round 20Arena Egnatia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

FK Kukesi52%
×Draw27%
Kastrioti Krujë21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Kukesi
1.41
Kastrioti Krujë
0.78

FK Kukesi creates 81% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 74 away

creates per match

FK Kukesi
1.19
Kastrioti Krujë
0.62

allows per match

FK Kukesi
0.95
Kastrioti Krujë
1.62

finishing

FK Kukesi+0.00on par
Kastrioti Krujë+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Kukesi ↓

Kastrioti Krujë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FK Kukesi or draw
79%
FK Kukesi or Kastrioti Krujë
73%
Draw or Kastrioti Krujë
48%

Winning margin

FK Kukesi wins by 2+
26%
Kastrioti Krujë wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FK Kukesi 1+ goals
76%
FK Kukesi 2+ goals
41%
FK Kukesi 3+ goals
17%
Kastrioti Krujë 1+ goals
54%
Kastrioti Krujë 2+ goals
18%
Kastrioti Krujë 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FK Kukesi (draw refunded)
71%
Kastrioti Krujë (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Kukesi at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.95 · 108 matches

Kastrioti Krujë away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.62 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Kukesi attack 1.19 + Kastrioti Krujë defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.41

Kastrioti Krujë attack 0.62 + FK Kukesi defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FK Kukesi scores more
52%
level
27%
Kastrioti Krujë scores more
21%

FK Kukesi at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FK Kukesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: FK Kukesi 4–0 Kastrioti Krujë

FK Kukesi beat Kastrioti Krujë 4-0 in Superliga on February 13, 2022.

The match was played at Arena Egnatia in Rrogozhinë.