FK Kukesi 1–2 Flamurtari: Result & Stats

FK Kukesi

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Flamurtari

9/17/2024

1st Division · Round 4Kukës Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

FK Kukesi31%

×Draw27%

Flamurtari41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK KukesiExpected goals in this matchFlamurtari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.31

FK Kukesi

1.10

Flamurtari

1.31

Flamurtari creates 19% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 55 away

1.17

creates per match

1.27

1.34

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

FK Kukesi

1.17

Flamurtari

1.27

allows per match

FK Kukesi

1.34

Flamurtari

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Kukesi+0.00on par

Flamurtari+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Kukesi ↓

Flamurtari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

FK Kukesi or draw

59%

FK Kukesi or Flamurtari

73%

Draw or Flamurtari

69%

Winning margin

FK Kukesi wins by 2+

12%

Flamurtari wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

FK Kukesi 1+ goals

67%

FK Kukesi 2+ goals

30%

FK Kukesi 3+ goals

10%

Flamurtari 1+ goals

73%

Flamurtari 2+ goals

38%

Flamurtari 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FK Kukesi (draw refunded)

43%

Flamurtari (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Kukesi at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

Flamurtari away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.04 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Kukesi attack 1.17 + Flamurtari defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Flamurtari attack 1.27 + FK Kukesi defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FK Kukesi scores more

31%

level

27%

Flamurtari scores more

41%

Flamurtari at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Flamurtari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff