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FK Kukesi vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë — Superliga 2018

FK Kukesi
FK Kukesi
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1/19/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 20Kukës Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

FK Kukesi35%
×Draw29%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Kukesi
1.08
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 94 away

creates per match

FK Kukesi
1.19
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.21

allows per match

FK Kukesi
0.95
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.98

finishing

FK Kukesi+0.00on par
Egnatia Rrogozhinë+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Kukesi ↓

Egnatia Rrogozhinë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FK Kukesi or draw
65%
FK Kukesi or Egnatia Rrogozhinë
71%
Draw or Egnatia Rrogozhinë
65%

Winning margin

FK Kukesi wins by 2+
14%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FK Kukesi 1+ goals
66%
FK Kukesi 2+ goals
29%
FK Kukesi 3+ goals
10%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1+ goals
66%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2+ goals
29%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FK Kukesi (draw refunded)
50%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Kukesi at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.95 · 108 matches

Egnatia Rrogozhinë away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.98 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Kukesi attack 1.19 + Egnatia Rrogozhinë defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.08

Egnatia Rrogozhinë attack 1.21 + FK Kukesi defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

FK Kukesi scores more
35%
level
29%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë scores more
35%

FK Kukesi at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "FK Kukesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: FK Kukesi 1–4 Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Egnatia Rrogozhinë beat FK Kukesi 4-1 in Superliga on January 19, 2024.

The match was played at Kukës Arena in Kukës.