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FK Kukesi vs Dinamo Tirana — Superliga 2018

FK Kukesi
FK Kukesi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Tirana
Dinamo Tirana
4/7/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 30Kukës Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

FK Kukesi43%
×Draw29%
Dinamo Tirana28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Kukesi
1.25
Dinamo Tirana
0.94

FK Kukesi creates 33% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 76 away

creates per match

FK Kukesi
1.19
Dinamo Tirana
0.93

allows per match

FK Kukesi
0.95
Dinamo Tirana
1.30

finishing

FK Kukesi+0.00on par
Dinamo Tirana+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Kukesi ↓

Dinamo Tirana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FK Kukesi or draw
72%
FK Kukesi or Dinamo Tirana
71%
Draw or Dinamo Tirana
57%

Winning margin

FK Kukesi wins by 2+
19%
Dinamo Tirana wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FK Kukesi 1+ goals
71%
FK Kukesi 2+ goals
36%
FK Kukesi 3+ goals
13%
Dinamo Tirana 1+ goals
61%
Dinamo Tirana 2+ goals
24%
Dinamo Tirana 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FK Kukesi (draw refunded)
61%
Dinamo Tirana (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Kukesi at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.95 · 108 matches

Dinamo Tirana away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.30 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Kukesi attack 1.19 + Dinamo Tirana defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dinamo Tirana attack 0.93 + FK Kukesi defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FK Kukesi scores more
43%
level
29%
Dinamo Tirana scores more
28%

FK Kukesi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FK Kukesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: FK Kukesi 1–1 Dinamo Tirana

FK Kukesi and Dinamo Tirana drew 1-1 in Superliga on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Kukës Arena in Kukës.