FK Kukesi 0–5 Besa Kavajë: Result & Stats

FK Kukesi

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Besa Kavajë

10/30/2024

1st Division · Round 10Kukës Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

FK Kukesi38%

×Draw27%

Besa Kavajë36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK KukesiExpected goals in this matchBesa Kavajë

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.27

FK Kukesi

1.31

Besa Kavajë

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 100 away

1.17

creates per match

1.20

1.34

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

FK Kukesi

1.17

Besa Kavajë

1.20

allows per match

FK Kukesi

1.34

Besa Kavajë

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Kukesi+0.00on par

Besa Kavajë+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Kukesi ↓

Besa Kavajë →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FK Kukesi or draw

64%

FK Kukesi or Besa Kavajë

73%

Draw or Besa Kavajë

62%

Winning margin

FK Kukesi wins by 2+

17%

Besa Kavajë wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FK Kukesi 1+ goals

73%

FK Kukesi 2+ goals

38%

FK Kukesi 3+ goals

14%

Besa Kavajë 1+ goals

72%

Besa Kavajë 2+ goals

36%

Besa Kavajë 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FK Kukesi (draw refunded)

51%

Besa Kavajë (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Kukesi at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

Besa Kavajë away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.46 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Kukesi attack 1.17 + Besa Kavajë defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Besa Kavajë attack 1.20 + FK Kukesi defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FK Kukesi scores more

38%

level

27%

Besa Kavajë scores more

36%

FK Kukesi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FK Kukesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff