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Besa Kavajë vs FK Kukesi — 1st Division 2019

Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
FK Kukesi
FK Kukesi
10/29/20251st Division1st Division · Round 9Stadiumi Luz i Vogël

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Besa Kavajë56%
×Draw25%
FK Kukesi19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besa Kavajë
1.60
FK Kukesi
0.83

Besa Kavajë creates 93% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 35 away

creates per match

Besa Kavajë
1.46
FK Kukesi
0.66

allows per match

Besa Kavajë
1.01
FK Kukesi
1.74

finishing

Besa Kavajë+0.00on par
FK Kukesi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Kavajë ↓

FK Kukesi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Besa Kavajë or draw
81%
Besa Kavajë or FK Kukesi
75%
Draw or FK Kukesi
44%

Winning margin

Besa Kavajë wins by 2+
30%
FK Kukesi wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Besa Kavajë 1+ goals
80%
Besa Kavajë 2+ goals
47%
Besa Kavajë 3+ goals
22%
FK Kukesi 1+ goals
56%
FK Kukesi 2+ goals
20%
FK Kukesi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Besa Kavajë (draw refunded)
74%
FK Kukesi (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Kavajë at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.01 · 102 matches

FK Kukesi away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.74 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Kavajë attack 1.46 + FK Kukesi defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.60

FK Kukesi attack 0.66 + Besa Kavajë defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Besa Kavajë scores more
56%
level
25%
FK Kukesi scores more
19%

Besa Kavajë at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Besa Kavajë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Besa Kavajë vs FK Kukesi

Besa Kavajë beat FK Kukesi 3-1 in 1st Division on October 29, 2025.

The match was played at Stadiumi Luz i Vogël in Luz i Vogël.