FK Košice 2–0 Slavoj Trebišov: Result & Stats

FK Košice

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Slavoj Trebišov

4/15/2023

2. liga · Round 25Košická futbalová aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

FK Košice64%

×Draw20%

Slavoj Trebišov15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK KošiceExpected goals in this matchSlavoj Trebišov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.88

FK Košice

2.04

Slavoj Trebišov

0.88

FK Košice creates 132% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 69 away

2.08

creates per match

0.97

0.79

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

FK Košice

2.08

Slavoj Trebišov

0.97

allows per match

FK Košice

0.79

Slavoj Trebišov

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Košice+0.00on par

Slavoj Trebišov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Košice ↓

Slavoj Trebišov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FK Košice or draw

85%

FK Košice or Slavoj Trebišov

80%

Draw or Slavoj Trebišov

36%

Winning margin

FK Košice wins by 2+

40%

Slavoj Trebišov wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

FK Košice 1+ goals

87%

FK Košice 2+ goals

60%

FK Košice 3+ goals

33%

Slavoj Trebišov 1+ goals

59%

Slavoj Trebišov 2+ goals

22%

Slavoj Trebišov 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FK Košice (draw refunded)

81%

Slavoj Trebišov (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Košice at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.79 · 52 matches

Slavoj Trebišov away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.01 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Košice attack 2.08 + Slavoj Trebišov defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.04

Slavoj Trebišov attack 0.97 + FK Košice defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

FK Košice scores more

64%

level

20%

Slavoj Trebišov scores more

15%

FK Košice at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FK Košice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff