FK Košice 2–0 Púchov: Result & Stats | 2. liga

FK Košice

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Púchov

M. Vasiľ 40'

M. Jakúbek 26'

4/8/2022

2. liga · Round 24Košická futbalová aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

FK Košice58%

×Draw22%

Púchov21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK KošiceExpected goals in this matchPúchov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.10

FK Košice

1.98

Púchov

1.10

FK Košice creates 80% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 92 away

2.08

creates per match

1.43

0.78

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

FK Košice

2.08

Púchov

1.43

allows per match

FK Košice

0.78

Púchov

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Košice+0.00on par

Púchov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Košice ↓

Púchov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FK Košice or draw

79%

FK Košice or Púchov

78%

Draw or Púchov

42%

Winning margin

FK Košice wins by 2+

34%

Púchov wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FK Košice 1+ goals

86%

FK Košice 2+ goals

59%

FK Košice 3+ goals

31%

Púchov 1+ goals

67%

Púchov 2+ goals

30%

Púchov 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

FK Košice (draw refunded)

74%

Púchov (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Košice at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.78 · 50 matches

Púchov away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.88 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Košice attack 2.08 + Púchov defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.98

Púchov attack 1.43 + FK Košice defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FK Košice scores more

58%

level

22%

Púchov scores more

21%

FK Košice at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FK Košice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

R. Lasik

26'

M. Jakúbek

33'

S. Kapusniak← M. Pavlovčík

40'

66'

67'

71'

78'

84'

84'

90'

E. Liener← M. Mølvadgaard

90'

M. Moško← R. Lásik

FK

Púchov

1

14

20

2

12

▼

4

7

10

17

6

▼

9

26

37

7

4

15

▼

Lásik

69

⚽

Jakúbek

12

▼

Ntuli

8

Gallovič

10

⚽

▼

Vasiľ

73

▼

Guba

81

▼

Mølvadgaa

Manager: J. Vukušič

66'▲J. Cortés←▼D. Guba

84'▲M. Novák←▼N. Ntuli

84'▲S. Gladiš←▼M. Vasiľ

90'▲E. Liener←▼M. Mølvadgaard

90'▲M. Moško←▼R. Lásik

FK Košice substitutes

30Cortés18Novák90Gladiš27Liener39Moško1Valach11Gáll23Jonec

Manager: M. Šimáček

33'▲S. Kapusniak←▼M. Pavlovčík

67'▲D. Hundák←▼R. Holáň

Púchov substitutes

18Kapusniak19Hundák5Lacko8Kopiš11Šeroň13Chupáň31Strelčík16Kubík