FK Košice 5–1 Dolný Kubín: Result & Stats | 2. liga

FK Košice

FT

5 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dolný Kubín

L. Sagna 87', 77', 76'

E. Liener 66'

B. Turčák 56'

D. Jackuliak 84'

3/11/2023

2. liga · Round 20Košická futbalová aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

FK Košice73%

×Draw17%

Dolný Kubín10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK KošiceExpected goals in this matchDolný Kubín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.74

FK Košice

2.33

Dolný Kubín

0.74

FK Košice creates 215% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 30 away

2.08

creates per match

0.70

0.78

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

FK Košice

2.08

Dolný Kubín

0.70

allows per match

FK Košice

0.78

Dolný Kubín

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Košice+0.00on par

Dolný Kubín+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Košice ↓

Dolný Kubín →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FK Košice or draw

90%

FK Košice or Dolný Kubín

83%

Draw or Dolný Kubín

27%

Winning margin

FK Košice wins by 2+

49%

Dolný Kubín wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

FK Košice 1+ goals

90%

FK Košice 2+ goals

67%

FK Košice 3+ goals

41%

Dolný Kubín 1+ goals

52%

Dolný Kubín 2+ goals

17%

Dolný Kubín 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

FK Košice (draw refunded)

88%

Dolný Kubín (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Košice at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.78 · 50 matches

Dolný Kubín away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Košice attack 2.08 + Dolný Kubín defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.33

Dolný Kubín attack 0.70 + FK Košice defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

FK Košice scores more

73%

level

17%

Dolný Kubín scores more

10%

FK Košice at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "FK Košice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

30'

50'

56'

60'

60'

66'

74'

B. Petrák← J. Mizerák

76'

77'

82'

82'

82'

84'

86'

I. Straka← S. Budinský

87'

L. Sagna

FK

Dolný

20

Baláž

10

Sopúch

3

Luka

19

▼

5

7

14

11

6

▼

Farský

12

⚽

Jackuliak

13

▼

Budinský

22

Kira

18

Šindelář

7

▼

20

5

13

66

▼

Varga

31

▼

Lačný

9

Pačinda

11

▼

Nafiu

10

⚽

▼

Turčák

Manager: A. Šoltís

60'▲E. Liener←▼V. Nafiu

60'▲L. Sagna←▼M. Lačný

74'▲B. Petrák←▼J. Mizerák

82'▲S. Gladiš←▼B. Turčák

82'▲M. Jonec←▼P. Varga

FK Košice substitutes

27Liener80Sagna3Petrák90Gladiš23Jonec1Valach19Magda

Manager: J. Haspra

30'▲M. Machaj←▼M. Ončák

82'▲I. Amobi←▼S. Farský

86'▲I. Straka←▼S. Budinský

Dolný Kubín substitutes

8Machaj2Amobi4Straka17Bača18Lupták1Vajs16Hrivnák