FK Jedinstvo Brcko 0–2 Zvijezda 09: Result & Stats

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

FT

0 – 2

Zvijezda 09

10/31/2020

1st League - RS · RS - 13Stadion FK Jedinstvo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FK Jedinstvo Brcko30%

×Draw26%

Zvijezda 0944%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Jedinstvo BrckoExpected goals in this matchZvijezda 09

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.43

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

1.14

Zvijezda 09

1.43

Zvijezda 09 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 79 away

1.05

creates per match

1.27

1.59

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

1.05

Zvijezda 09

1.27

allows per match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

1.59

Zvijezda 09

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Jedinstvo Brcko+0.00on par

Zvijezda 09+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Jedinstvo Brcko ↓

Zvijezda 09 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FK Jedinstvo Brcko or draw

56%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko or Zvijezda 09

74%

Draw or Zvijezda 09

70%

Winning margin

FK Jedinstvo Brcko wins by 2+

12%

Zvijezda 09 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 1+ goals

68%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 2+ goals

32%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 3+ goals

11%

Zvijezda 09 1+ goals

76%

Zvijezda 09 2+ goals

42%

Zvijezda 09 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FK Jedinstvo Brcko (draw refunded)

41%

Zvijezda 09 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Jedinstvo Brcko at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

Zvijezda 09 away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko attack 1.05 + Zvijezda 09 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.14

Zvijezda 09 attack 1.27 + FK Jedinstvo Brcko defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FK Jedinstvo Brcko scores more

30%

level

26%

Zvijezda 09 scores more

44%

Zvijezda 09 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zvijezda 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff