FK Jedinstvo Brcko 0–0 Rudar Prijedor

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

FT

0 – 0

Rudar Prijedor

10/3/2020

1st League - RS · RS - 9Stadion FK Jedinstvo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FK Jedinstvo Brcko27%

×Draw28%

Rudar Prijedor45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Jedinstvo BrckoExpected goals in this matchRudar Prijedor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.31

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

0.93

Rudar Prijedor

1.31

Rudar Prijedor creates 41% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 73 away

1.05

creates per match

1.03

1.59

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

1.05

Rudar Prijedor

1.03

allows per match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

1.59

Rudar Prijedor

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Jedinstvo Brcko+0.00on par

Rudar Prijedor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Jedinstvo Brcko ↓

Rudar Prijedor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

FK Jedinstvo Brcko or draw

55%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko or Rudar Prijedor

72%

Draw or Rudar Prijedor

73%

Winning margin

FK Jedinstvo Brcko wins by 2+

9%

Rudar Prijedor wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 1+ goals

61%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 2+ goals

24%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 3+ goals

7%

Rudar Prijedor 1+ goals

73%

Rudar Prijedor 2+ goals

38%

Rudar Prijedor 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FK Jedinstvo Brcko (draw refunded)

37%

Rudar Prijedor (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Jedinstvo Brcko at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

Rudar Prijedor away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.81 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko attack 1.05 + Rudar Prijedor defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.93

Rudar Prijedor attack 1.03 + FK Jedinstvo Brcko defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FK Jedinstvo Brcko scores more

27%

level

28%

Rudar Prijedor scores more

45%

Rudar Prijedor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rudar Prijedor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff