FK Jedinstvo Brcko 2–4 Drina Zvornik

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

FT

2 – 4

Drina Zvornik

11/14/2020

1st League - RS · RS - 15Stadion FK Jedinstvo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FK Jedinstvo Brcko44%

×Draw26%

Drina Zvornik30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Jedinstvo BrckoExpected goals in this matchDrina Zvornik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.15

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

1.44

Drina Zvornik

1.15

FK Jedinstvo Brcko creates 25% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 96 away

1.05

creates per match

0.71

1.59

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

1.05

Drina Zvornik

0.71

allows per match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

1.59

Drina Zvornik

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Jedinstvo Brcko+0.00on par

Drina Zvornik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Jedinstvo Brcko ↓

Drina Zvornik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FK Jedinstvo Brcko or draw

70%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko or Drina Zvornik

74%

Draw or Drina Zvornik

56%

Winning margin

FK Jedinstvo Brcko wins by 2+

21%

Drina Zvornik wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 1+ goals

76%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 2+ goals

42%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 3+ goals

18%

Drina Zvornik 1+ goals

68%

Drina Zvornik 2+ goals

32%

Drina Zvornik 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FK Jedinstvo Brcko (draw refunded)

59%

Drina Zvornik (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Jedinstvo Brcko at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

Drina Zvornik away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.83 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko attack 1.05 + Drina Zvornik defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.44

Drina Zvornik attack 0.71 + FK Jedinstvo Brcko defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FK Jedinstvo Brcko scores more

44%

level

26%

Drina Zvornik scores more

30%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FK Jedinstvo Brcko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff