FK Jedinstvo Brcko 0–0 Borac Kozarska Dubica

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

FT

0 – 0

Borac Kozarska Dubica

3/20/2021

1st League - RS · RS - 18Stadion FK Jedinstvo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FK Jedinstvo Brcko49%

×Draw24%

Borac Kozarska Dubica26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Jedinstvo BrckoExpected goals in this matchBorac Kozarska Dubica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.17

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

1.69

Borac Kozarska Dubica

1.17

FK Jedinstvo Brcko creates 44% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 64 away

1.05

creates per match

0.75

1.59

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

1.05

Borac Kozarska Dubica

0.75

allows per match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

1.59

Borac Kozarska Dubica

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Jedinstvo Brcko+0.00on par

Borac Kozarska Dubica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Jedinstvo Brcko ↓

Borac Kozarska Dubica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FK Jedinstvo Brcko or draw

74%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko or Borac Kozarska Dubica

76%

Draw or Borac Kozarska Dubica

51%

Winning margin

FK Jedinstvo Brcko wins by 2+

26%

Borac Kozarska Dubica wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 1+ goals

82%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 2+ goals

50%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 3+ goals

24%

Borac Kozarska Dubica 1+ goals

69%

Borac Kozarska Dubica 2+ goals

33%

Borac Kozarska Dubica 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FK Jedinstvo Brcko (draw refunded)

65%

Borac Kozarska Dubica (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Jedinstvo Brcko at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

Borac Kozarska Dubica away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.34 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko attack 1.05 + Borac Kozarska Dubica defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.69

Borac Kozarska Dubica attack 0.75 + FK Jedinstvo Brcko defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FK Jedinstvo Brcko scores more

49%

level

24%

Borac Kozarska Dubica scores more

26%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FK Jedinstvo Brcko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff