FK Jablonec 1–1 Sparta Praha: Result & Stats

FK Jablonec

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sparta Praha

7/19/2025

Czech Liga · Round 1Stadion Strelnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FK Jablonec44%

×Draw25%

Sparta Praha32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK JablonecExpected goals in this matchSparta Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.31

FK Jablonec

1.59

Sparta Praha

1.31

FK Jablonec creates 21% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.72

creates per match

1.57

1.05

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

FK Jablonec

1.72

Sparta Praha

1.57

allows per match

FK Jablonec

1.05

Sparta Praha

1.46

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

FK Jablonec-0.32scores less

Sparta Praha-0.28scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Jablonec ↓

Sparta Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FK Jablonec or draw

68%

FK Jablonec or Sparta Praha

75%

Draw or Sparta Praha

56%

Winning margin

FK Jablonec wins by 2+

22%

Sparta Praha wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FK Jablonec 1+ goals

80%

FK Jablonec 2+ goals

47%

FK Jablonec 3+ goals

21%

Sparta Praha 1+ goals

73%

Sparta Praha 2+ goals

38%

Sparta Praha 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FK Jablonec (draw refunded)

58%

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Jablonec at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.05 · 5 matches

Sparta Praha away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.46 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Jablonec attack 1.72 + Sparta Praha defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.59

Sparta Praha attack 1.57 + FK Jablonec defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FK Jablonec scores more

44%

level

25%

Sparta Praha scores more

32%

FK Jablonec at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FK Jablonec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff