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FK Jablonec vs Slovácko — Czech Liga 2019

FK Jablonec
FK Jablonec
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Slovácko
Slovácko
2/7/2026Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 21Stadion Strelnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FK Jablonec59%
×Draw24%
Slovácko17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Jablonec
1.69
Slovácko
0.78

FK Jablonec creates 117% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

FK Jablonec
1.72
Slovácko
0.51

allows per match

FK Jablonec
1.05
Slovácko
1.67

finishing

FK Jablonec-0.32scores less
Slovácko-0.01on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Jablonec ↓

Slovácko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FK Jablonec or draw
83%
FK Jablonec or Slovácko
76%
Draw or Slovácko
41%

Winning margin

FK Jablonec wins by 2+
33%
Slovácko wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FK Jablonec 1+ goals
82%
FK Jablonec 2+ goals
50%
FK Jablonec 3+ goals
24%
Slovácko 1+ goals
54%
Slovácko 2+ goals
18%
Slovácko 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FK Jablonec (draw refunded)
78%
Slovácko (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Jablonec at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.05 · 5 matches

Slovácko away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.67 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Jablonec attack 1.72 + Slovácko defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Slovácko attack 0.51 + FK Jablonec defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FK Jablonec scores more
59%
level
24%
Slovácko scores more
17%

FK Jablonec at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FK Jablonec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99
K. MihelakFK JablonecFK Jablonec · G
8.0

Match Events

46'
E. Sobol← M. Polidar
46'
M. Krmencik← A. Marinelli
54'
P. Juroska← M. Travnik
59'
D. Holly← F. Zorvan
59'
J. Chramosta← A. Alegue
75'
J. Suchan← S. Nebyla
75'
M. Petrzela← A. Ouanda
75'
P. Ndubuisi← P. Blahut
79'
D. Puskac← L. Jawo
83'
Milan Heča
86'
P. Reinberk← M. Rundic
90+1'
Milan Petržela

Possession

47%FK

Shots

6FK

Pass accuracy

49%FK

Statistics

FKSlovácko
Overview
47%Possession53%
6Total Shots15
5Corners8
14Fouls12
Shots
6Total Shots15
3On Target5
2Off Target8
1Blocked2
5Inside Box5
1Outside Box10
Passing
47%Possession53%
376Total Passes446
298Accurate Passes363
79%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls12
0Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Match Recap: FK Jablonec vs Slovácko

FK Jablonec and Slovácko drew 0-0 in Czech Liga on February 7, 2026.

Slovácko controlled possession (53%) and registered 15 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadion Strelnice in Jablonec nad Nisou.