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FK Jablonec vs GKS Katowice — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FK Jablonec
FK Jablonec
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice
D. Holly 60'
R. Pantalon 56'
F. Novak 21'
1/14/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FK Jablonec71%
×Draw18%
GKS Katowice11%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Jablonec
2.20
GKS Katowice
0.71

FK Jablonec creates 210% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

creates per match

FK Jablonec
2.64
GKS Katowice
0.50

allows per match

FK Jablonec
0.91
GKS Katowice
1.75

finishing

FK Jablonec+0.00on par
GKS Katowice+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Jablonec ↓

GKS Katowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FK Jablonec or draw
89%
FK Jablonec or GKS Katowice
82%
Draw or GKS Katowice
29%

Winning margin

FK Jablonec wins by 2+
47%
GKS Katowice wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FK Jablonec 1+ goals
89%
FK Jablonec 2+ goals
64%
FK Jablonec 3+ goals
37%
GKS Katowice 1+ goals
51%
GKS Katowice 2+ goals
16%
GKS Katowice 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FK Jablonec (draw refunded)
87%
GKS Katowice (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Jablonec at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

GKS Katowice away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Jablonec attack 2.64 + GKS Katowice defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.20

GKS Katowice attack 0.50 + FK Jablonec defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

FK Jablonec scores more
71%
level
18%
GKS Katowice scores more
11%

FK Jablonec at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "FK Jablonec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
F. Novak
56'
R. Pantalon
60'
D. Holly
FK
GKS
Lubos Kozel
Manager: Lubos Kozel
Rafal Gorak
Manager: Rafal Gorak

FK Jablonec 3 – 0 GKS Katowice

FK Jablonec beat GKS Katowice 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 14, 2026.

Goals: F. Novak (21'), R. Pantalon (56'), D. Holly (60').