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FK Hulbuk vs Panjsher — Vysshaya Liga 2025

FK Hulbuk
FK Hulbuk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Panjsher
Panjsher
6/14/2025Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 12Kulob Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FK Hulbuk32%
×Draw24%
Panjsher44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Hulbuk
1.42
Panjsher
1.71

Panjsher creates 20% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 24 away

creates per match

FK Hulbuk
0.92
Panjsher
0.83

allows per match

FK Hulbuk
2.58
Panjsher
1.92

finishing

FK Hulbuk+0.00on par
Panjsher+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Hulbuk ↓

Panjsher →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FK Hulbuk or draw
56%
FK Hulbuk or Panjsher
76%
Draw or Panjsher
68%

Winning margin

FK Hulbuk wins by 2+
15%
Panjsher wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

FK Hulbuk 1+ goals
76%
FK Hulbuk 2+ goals
41%
FK Hulbuk 3+ goals
17%
Panjsher 1+ goals
82%
Panjsher 2+ goals
51%
Panjsher 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

FK Hulbuk (draw refunded)
42%
Panjsher (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Hulbuk at home — creates 0.92, concedes 2.58 · 12 matches

Panjsher away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.92 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Hulbuk attack 0.92 + Panjsher defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.42

Panjsher attack 0.83 + FK Hulbuk defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FK Hulbuk scores more
32%
level
24%
Panjsher scores more
44%

Panjsher at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Panjsher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: FK Hulbuk 1–1 Panjsher

FK Hulbuk and Panjsher drew 1-1 in Vysshaya Liga on June 14, 2025.

The match was played at Kulob Arena in Kulob (Kulyab).