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FK Hulbuk vs Khosilot Farkhor — Vysshaya Liga 2025

FK Hulbuk
FK Hulbuk
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Khosilot Farkhor
Khosilot Farkhor
A. Bakhruman 90'
M. Kiyomidinov 79'
S. Mukhammadsharifi 90', 34'
C. Firdavs 77'
R. Ngombe 71'
J. Akomadi 26'
5/28/2025Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 10Vaxş-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FK Hulbuk26%
×Draw22%
Khosilot Farkhor51%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Hulbuk
1.31
Khosilot Farkhor
1.91

Khosilot Farkhor creates 46% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 35 away

creates per match

FK Hulbuk
0.92
Khosilot Farkhor
1.23

allows per match

FK Hulbuk
2.58
Khosilot Farkhor
1.71

finishing

FK Hulbuk+0.00on par
Khosilot Farkhor+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Hulbuk ↓

Khosilot Farkhor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FK Hulbuk or draw
49%
FK Hulbuk or Khosilot Farkhor
78%
Draw or Khosilot Farkhor
74%

Winning margin

FK Hulbuk wins by 2+
11%
Khosilot Farkhor wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

FK Hulbuk 1+ goals
73%
FK Hulbuk 2+ goals
38%
FK Hulbuk 3+ goals
14%
Khosilot Farkhor 1+ goals
85%
Khosilot Farkhor 2+ goals
57%
Khosilot Farkhor 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

FK Hulbuk (draw refunded)
34%
Khosilot Farkhor (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Hulbuk at home — creates 0.92, concedes 2.58 · 12 matches

Khosilot Farkhor away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.71 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Hulbuk attack 0.92 + Khosilot Farkhor defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.31

Khosilot Farkhor attack 1.23 + FK Hulbuk defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FK Hulbuk scores more
26%
level
22%
Khosilot Farkhor scores more
51%

Khosilot Farkhor at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Khosilot Farkhor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
J. Akomadi
34'
S. Mukhammadsharifi
71'
R. Ngombe
77'
C. Firdavs
79'
M. Kiyomidinov
90'
A. Bakhruman
90'
S. Mukhammadsharifi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: FK Hulbuk 2–5 Khosilot Farkhor

Khosilot Farkhor beat FK Hulbuk 5-2 in Vysshaya Liga on May 28, 2025.

Goals: J. Akomadi (26'), S. Mukhammadsharifi (34', 90'), R. Ngombe (71'), C. Firdavs (77'), M. Kiyomidinov (79'), A. Bakhruman (90').

The match was played at Vaxş-Arena in Kurgan-Tyube.