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FK Hulbuk vs Khatlon — Vysshaya Liga 2025

FK Hulbuk
FK Hulbuk
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Khatlon
Khatlon
K. Cherniy 77'
F. Fatkhulloev 72'
10/24/2025Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 20Stadion Hulbuk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FK Hulbuk26%
×Draw23%
Khatlon51%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Hulbuk
1.22
Khatlon
1.80

Khatlon creates 48% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 48 away

creates per match

FK Hulbuk
0.92
Khatlon
1.02

allows per match

FK Hulbuk
2.58
Khatlon
1.52

finishing

FK Hulbuk+0.00on par
Khatlon+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Hulbuk ↓

Khatlon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FK Hulbuk or draw
49%
FK Hulbuk or Khatlon
77%
Draw or Khatlon
74%

Winning margin

FK Hulbuk wins by 2+
11%
Khatlon wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

FK Hulbuk 1+ goals
70%
FK Hulbuk 2+ goals
34%
FK Hulbuk 3+ goals
12%
Khatlon 1+ goals
83%
Khatlon 2+ goals
54%
Khatlon 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

FK Hulbuk (draw refunded)
34%
Khatlon (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Hulbuk at home — creates 0.92, concedes 2.58 · 12 matches

Khatlon away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.52 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Hulbuk attack 0.92 + Khatlon defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.22

Khatlon attack 1.02 + FK Hulbuk defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FK Hulbuk scores more
26%
level
23%
Khatlon scores more
51%

Khatlon at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Khatlon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

72'
F. Fatkhulloev
77'
K. Cherniy

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: FK Hulbuk 0–2 Khatlon

Khatlon beat FK Hulbuk 2-0 in Vysshaya Liga on October 24, 2025.

Goals: F. Fatkhulloev (72'), K. Cherniy (77').

The match was played at Stadion Hulbuk in Hulbuk.