FK Crvena Zvezda vs Vojvodina: Preview & Prediction

FK Crvena Zvezda

Preview

16:00

Vojvodina

7/25/2026

Super Liga · Round 2Stadion Rajko Mit

Big match

69%

FK Crvena Zvezda

model favours

69%18%13%

FK Crvena Zvezda have won 3 in a row

brightest fact of this match

2–0

likely score

63%

over 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

FK Crvena Zvezda69%

×Draw18%

Vojvodina13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Crvena ZvezdaExpected goals in this matchVojvodina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

0.91

FK Crvena Zvezda

2.34

Vojvodina

0.91

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 157% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

3.01

creates per match

1.05

0.76

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

FK Crvena Zvezda

3.01

Vojvodina

1.05

allows per match

FK Crvena Zvezda

0.76

Vojvodina

1.68

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.35scores more

Vojvodina+0.25scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Crvena Zvezda ↓

Vojvodina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

FK Crvena Zvezda or draw

87%

FK Crvena Zvezda or Vojvodina

82%

Draw or Vojvodina

31%

Winning margin

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+

46%

Vojvodina wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals

90%

FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals

67%

FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals

41%

Vojvodina 1+ goals

60%

Vojvodina 2+ goals

23%

Vojvodina 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)

84%

Vojvodina (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Crvena Zvezda at home — creates 3.01, concedes 0.76 · 11 matches

Vojvodina away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.68 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 3.01 + Vojvodina defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.34

Vojvodina attack 1.05 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more

69%

level

18%

Vojvodina scores more

13%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

80% of Vojvodina’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Top-of-the-table clash — FK Crvena Zvezda 1 vs Vojvodina 2
Vojvodina win just 41% against the top half (vs 81% against the bottom)
Style contrast — FK Crvena Zvezda play Possession-dominant, Vojvodina Attack-heavy
Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.5 goals