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FK Crvena Zvezda vs Vojvodina — Super Liga 2026

FK Crvena Zvezda
FK Crvena Zvezda
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vojvodina
Vojvodina
12/7/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 18Stadion Rajko Mit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

FK Crvena Zvezda63%
×Draw20%
Vojvodina17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Crvena Zvezda
2.08
Vojvodina
0.97

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 114% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 146 away

creates per match

FK Crvena Zvezda
2.91
Vojvodina
1.36

allows per match

FK Crvena Zvezda
0.57
Vojvodina
1.26

finishing

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par
Vojvodina+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Crvena Zvezda ↓

Vojvodina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FK Crvena Zvezda or draw
83%
FK Crvena Zvezda or Vojvodina
80%
Draw or Vojvodina
37%

Winning margin

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+
39%
Vojvodina wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals
87%
FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals
61%
FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals
34%
Vojvodina 1+ goals
62%
Vojvodina 2+ goals
25%
Vojvodina 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)
79%
Vojvodina (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Crvena Zvezda at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.57 · 149 matches

Vojvodina away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.26 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.91 + Vojvodina defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 2.08

Vojvodina attack 1.36 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more
63%
level
20%
Vojvodina scores more
17%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: FK Crvena Zvezda 0–1 Vojvodina

Vojvodina beat FK Crvena Zvezda 1-0 in Super Liga on December 7, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Rajko Mit in Belgrade.