FK Crvena Zvezda 3–1 RAD: Result & Stats

FK Crvena Zvezda

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

RAD

10/18/2019

Super Liga · Round 12Stadion Rajko Mitić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

FK Crvena Zvezda77%

×Draw16%

RAD7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Crvena ZvezdaExpected goals in this matchRAD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

0.56

FK Crvena Zvezda

2.31

RAD

0.56

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 313% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 53 away

2.90

creates per match

0.55

0.57

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

FK Crvena Zvezda

2.90

RAD

0.55

allows per match

FK Crvena Zvezda

0.57

RAD

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par

RAD+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Crvena Zvezda ↓

RAD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FK Crvena Zvezda or draw

93%

FK Crvena Zvezda or RAD

84%

Draw or RAD

23%

Winning margin

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+

53%

RAD wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals

90%

FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals

67%

FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals

40%

RAD 1+ goals

43%

RAD 2+ goals

11%

RAD 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)

91%

RAD (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Crvena Zvezda at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.57 · 148 matches

RAD away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.72 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.90 + RAD defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.31

RAD attack 0.55 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more

77%

level

16%

RAD scores more

7%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff