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FK Crvena Zvezda vs Novi Pazar — Super Liga 2026

FK Crvena Zvezda
FK Crvena Zvezda
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Novi Pazar
Novi Pazar
5/9/2026Super LigaSuper Liga · Championship Group - 35Stadion Rajko Mit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

FK Crvena Zvezda70%
×Draw18%
Novi Pazar12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Crvena Zvezda
2.27
Novi Pazar
0.82

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 177% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 114 away

creates per match

FK Crvena Zvezda
2.91
Novi Pazar
1.07

allows per match

FK Crvena Zvezda
0.57
Novi Pazar
1.63

finishing

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par
Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Crvena Zvezda ↓

Novi Pazar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FK Crvena Zvezda or draw
88%
FK Crvena Zvezda or Novi Pazar
82%
Draw or Novi Pazar
30%

Winning margin

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+
46%
Novi Pazar wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals
90%
FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals
66%
FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals
39%
Novi Pazar 1+ goals
56%
Novi Pazar 2+ goals
20%
Novi Pazar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)
85%
Novi Pazar (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Crvena Zvezda at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.57 · 149 matches

Novi Pazar away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.63 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.91 + Novi Pazar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.27

Novi Pazar attack 1.07 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more
70%
level
18%
Novi Pazar scores more
12%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Crvena Zvezda vs Novi Pazar

Novi Pazar beat FK Crvena Zvezda 2-1 in Super Liga on May 9, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Rajko Mit in Belgrade.