FK Crvena Zvezda 0–0 Napoli: Result & Stats

FK Crvena Zvezda

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Napoli

9/18/2018

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 1Rajko Mitić Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

FK Crvena Zvezda48%

×Draw24%

Napoli28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Crvena ZvezdaExpected goals in this matchNapoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.29

FK Crvena Zvezda

1.75

Napoli

1.29

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 36% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

1.95

creates per match

1.33

1.24

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

FK Crvena Zvezda

1.95

Napoli

1.33

allows per match

FK Crvena Zvezda

1.24

Napoli

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par

Napoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Crvena Zvezda ↓

Napoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FK Crvena Zvezda or draw

72%

FK Crvena Zvezda or Napoli

76%

Draw or Napoli

52%

Winning margin

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+

26%

Napoli wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals

83%

FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals

52%

FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals

25%

Napoli 1+ goals

72%

Napoli 2+ goals

37%

Napoli 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)

63%

Napoli (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Crvena Zvezda at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 1.95 + Napoli defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.75

Napoli attack 1.33 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more

48%

level

24%

Napoli scores more

28%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

82

M. Borjan

FK Crvena Zvezda · G

8.5

Match Events

17'

Allan

37'

Nenad Krstičić

55'

Miloš Degenek

56'

D. Jovančić← B. Jovičić

57'

Raúl Albiol

61'

D. Mertens← Allan

75'

A. Ounas← José Callejón

75'

M. Hamšík← P. Zieliński

81'

87'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FKNapoli

Overview

26%Possession74%

6Total Shots20

8Corners8

8Fouls14

Shots

6Total Shots20

3On Target8

1Off Target7

2Blocked5

2Inside Box9

4Outside Box11

Passing

26%Possession74%

280Total Passes785

186Accurate Passes686

66%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1