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FK Crvena Zvezda vs Mladost Lucani — Super Liga 2026

FK Crvena Zvezda
FK Crvena Zvezda
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani
12/9/2023Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 18Stadion Rajko Mitić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

FK Crvena Zvezda72%
×Draw18%
Mladost Lucani10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Crvena Zvezda
2.24
Mladost Lucani
0.71

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 215% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 147 away

creates per match

FK Crvena Zvezda
2.91
Mladost Lucani
0.86

allows per match

FK Crvena Zvezda
0.57
Mladost Lucani
1.57

finishing

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par
Mladost Lucani+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Crvena Zvezda ↓

Mladost Lucani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FK Crvena Zvezda or draw
90%
FK Crvena Zvezda or Mladost Lucani
82%
Draw or Mladost Lucani
28%

Winning margin

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+
48%
Mladost Lucani wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals
89%
FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals
65%
FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals
38%
Mladost Lucani 1+ goals
51%
Mladost Lucani 2+ goals
16%
Mladost Lucani 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)
87%
Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Crvena Zvezda at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.57 · 149 matches

Mladost Lucani away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.91 + Mladost Lucani defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.24

Mladost Lucani attack 0.86 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more
72%
level
18%
Mladost Lucani scores more
10%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: FK Crvena Zvezda 3–1 Mladost Lucani

FK Crvena Zvezda beat Mladost Lucani 3-1 in Super Liga on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Rajko Mitić in Beograd.