FK Crvena Zvezda vs Jedinstvo Ub — Super Liga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 19+ matches
FK Crvena Zvezda80%
Jedinstvo Ub7%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FK Crvena Zvezda creates 305% more chances
Season form · 149 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over64
- Under36
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FK Crvena Zvezda ↓
Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FK Crvena Zvezda at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.57 · 149 matches
Jedinstvo Ub away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.91 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.67
Jedinstvo Ub attack 0.74 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.66
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 80%?"
FK Crvena Zvezda at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 80% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Jedinstvo Ub substitutes
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sampleFK Crvena Zvezda
Radnicki NIS
FK Partizan
Cukaricki
Mladost Lucani
Napredak
Vojvodina
Proleter Novi SAD
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Radnik Surdulica
FK Vozdovac
Macva
Backa
RAD
Dinamo Vranje
ZemunIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
FK Crvena Zvezda host Jedinstvo Ub on Saturday, 20 July 2024 at 18:00. The match is part of the Super Liga 2026/2027 season.
Super Liga: FK Crvena Zvezda 4–0 Jedinstvo Ub
FK Crvena Zvezda beat Jedinstvo Ub 4-0 in Super Liga on July 20, 2024.
Goals: C. Ndiaye (18', 23'), A. Katai (53'), Bruno Duarte (69').
FK Crvena Zvezda controlled possession (62%) and registered 25 shots to 8.
The match was played at Stadion Rajko Mitić in Beograd.