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FK Crvena Zvezda vs FK Vozdovac — Super Liga 2026

FK Crvena Zvezda
FK Crvena Zvezda
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
FK Vozdovac
FK Vozdovac
8/13/2022Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 6Stadion Rajko Mitić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

FK Crvena Zvezda72%
×Draw17%
FK Vozdovac10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Crvena Zvezda
2.28
FK Vozdovac
0.73

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 212% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 109 away

creates per match

FK Crvena Zvezda
2.91
FK Vozdovac
0.89

allows per match

FK Crvena Zvezda
0.57
FK Vozdovac
1.65

finishing

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par
FK Vozdovac+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Crvena Zvezda ↓

FK Vozdovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FK Crvena Zvezda or draw
90%
FK Crvena Zvezda or FK Vozdovac
83%
Draw or FK Vozdovac
28%

Winning margin

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+
48%
FK Vozdovac wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals
90%
FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals
66%
FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals
39%
FK Vozdovac 1+ goals
52%
FK Vozdovac 2+ goals
17%
FK Vozdovac 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)
87%
FK Vozdovac (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Crvena Zvezda at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.57 · 149 matches

FK Vozdovac away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.65 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.91 + FK Vozdovac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.28

FK Vozdovac attack 0.89 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more
72%
level
17%
FK Vozdovac scores more
10%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Crvena Zvezda vs FK Vozdovac

FK Crvena Zvezda beat FK Vozdovac 4-0 in Super Liga on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Rajko Mitić in Beograd.