FK Crvena Zvezda 0–0 1899 Hoffenheim

FK Crvena Zvezda

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

1899 Hoffenheim

12/3/2020

UEFA Europa League · Group L - 5Stadion Rajko Mitić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FK Crvena Zvezda35%

×Draw25%

1899 Hoffenheim40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Crvena ZvezdaExpected goals in this match1899 Hoffenheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.50

FK Crvena Zvezda

1.38

1899 Hoffenheim

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 4 away

1.75

creates per match

2.25

0.75

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

FK Crvena Zvezda

1.75

1899 Hoffenheim

2.25

allows per match

FK Crvena Zvezda

0.75

1899 Hoffenheim

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par

1899 Hoffenheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Crvena Zvezda ↓

1899 Hoffenheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FK Crvena Zvezda or draw

60%

FK Crvena Zvezda or 1899 Hoffenheim

75%

Draw or 1899 Hoffenheim

65%

Winning margin

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+

16%

1899 Hoffenheim wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals

75%

FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals

40%

FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals

16%

1899 Hoffenheim 1+ goals

78%

1899 Hoffenheim 2+ goals

44%

1899 Hoffenheim 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)

46%

1899 Hoffenheim (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Crvena Zvezda at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

1899 Hoffenheim away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 1.75 + 1899 Hoffenheim defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

1899 Hoffenheim attack 2.25 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more

35%

level

25%

1899 Hoffenheim scores more

40%

1899 Hoffenheim at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "1899 Hoffenheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

82

M. Borjan

FK Crvena Zvezda · G

8.3

Match Events

24'

Guélor Kanga

46'

A. Vukanović← S. Spiridonović

46'

A. Kramarić← M. Dabour

58'

F. Grillitsch← D. Geiger

67'

Melayro Bogarde

68'

Kevin Vogt

72'

C. Baumgartner← M. Gaćinović

72'

K. Nuhu← S. Rudy

81'

S. Eraković← E. Ben Nabouhane

81'

V. Nikolić← G. Kanga

87'

Nemanja Milunović

89'

R. Boakye← D. Falcinelli

89'

R. Sessegnon← R. Skov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FK1899

Overview

38%Possession62%

5Total Shots16

3Corners8

21Fouls17

Shots

5Total Shots16

1On Target5

2Off Target3

2Blocked8

1Inside Box11

4Outside Box5

Passing

38%Possession62%

357Total Passes584

245Accurate Passes474

69%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

21Fouls17

2Yellow Cards2

5Offsides0