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FK Beograd vs West Adelaide — South Australia NPL 2026

FK Beograd
FK Beograd
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
West Adelaide
West Adelaide
Y. Abetew 90', 75'
D. Pollock 43' (pen)
J. Gatting 51'
6/16/2023South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 17Frank Mitchell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

FK Beograd53%
×Draw22%
West Adelaide25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Beograd
1.96
West Adelaide
1.27

FK Beograd creates 54% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 29 away

creates per match

FK Beograd
1.75
West Adelaide
1.00

allows per match

FK Beograd
1.55
West Adelaide
2.17

finishing

FK Beograd+0.00on par
West Adelaide+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Beograd ↓

West Adelaide →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FK Beograd or draw
75%
FK Beograd or West Adelaide
78%
Draw or West Adelaide
47%

Winning margin

FK Beograd wins by 2+
31%
West Adelaide wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FK Beograd 1+ goals
86%
FK Beograd 2+ goals
58%
FK Beograd 3+ goals
31%
West Adelaide 1+ goals
72%
West Adelaide 2+ goals
36%
West Adelaide 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FK Beograd (draw refunded)
68%
West Adelaide (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Beograd at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.55 · 53 matches

West Adelaide away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Beograd attack 1.75 + West Adelaide defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.96

West Adelaide attack 1.00 + FK Beograd defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FK Beograd scores more
53%
level
22%
West Adelaide scores more
25%

FK Beograd at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FK Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
D. PollockPenalty
51'
J. Gatting
75'
Y. Abetew
90'
Y. Abetew

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FK Beograd 3 – 1 West Adelaide

FK Beograd beat West Adelaide 3-1 in South Australia NPL on June 16, 2023.

Goals: D. Pollock (43' pen), J. Gatting (51'), Y. Abetew (75', 90').

The match was played at Frank Mitchell Park in Adelaide.