FK Beograd 1–0 West Adelaide: Result & Stats

FK Beograd

FT

1 – 0

West Adelaide

5/8/2021

South Australia State League 1 · Round 4Frank Mitchell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

FK Beograd54%

×Draw26%

West Adelaide20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK BeogradExpected goals in this matchWest Adelaide

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.84

FK Beograd

1.56

West Adelaide

0.84

FK Beograd creates 86% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 47 away

1.85

creates per match

1.53

0.15

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

FK Beograd

1.85

West Adelaide

1.53

allows per match

FK Beograd

0.15

West Adelaide

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Beograd+0.00on par

West Adelaide+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Beograd ↓

West Adelaide →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FK Beograd or draw

80%

FK Beograd or West Adelaide

74%

Draw or West Adelaide

46%

Winning margin

FK Beograd wins by 2+

29%

West Adelaide wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

FK Beograd 1+ goals

79%

FK Beograd 2+ goals

46%

FK Beograd 3+ goals

21%

West Adelaide 1+ goals

57%

West Adelaide 2+ goals

21%

West Adelaide 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

FK Beograd (draw refunded)

73%

West Adelaide (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Beograd at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.15 · 13 matches

West Adelaide away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Beograd attack 1.85 + West Adelaide defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.56

West Adelaide attack 1.53 + FK Beograd defence 0.15 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FK Beograd scores more

54%

level

26%

West Adelaide scores more

20%

FK Beograd at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FK Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff