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FK Becej vs Tisa Adorjan — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

FK Becej
FK Becej
FT
1 – 1
Tisa Adorjan
Tisa Adorjan
8/22/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 2Gradski stadion kraj Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

FK Becej40%
×Draw23%
Tisa Adorjan36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Becej
1.67
Tisa Adorjan
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 64 away

creates per match

FK Becej
1.69
Tisa Adorjan
1.58

allows per match

FK Becej
1.56
Tisa Adorjan
1.64

finishing

FK Becej+0.00on par
Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Becej ↓

Tisa Adorjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FK Becej or draw
64%
FK Becej or Tisa Adorjan
77%
Draw or Tisa Adorjan
60%

Winning margin

FK Becej wins by 2+
21%
Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FK Becej 1+ goals
81%
FK Becej 2+ goals
50%
FK Becej 3+ goals
23%
Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals
79%
Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals
46%
Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FK Becej (draw refunded)
53%
Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Becej at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

Tisa Adorjan away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.64 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Becej attack 1.69 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.58 + FK Becej defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FK Becej scores more
40%
level
23%
Tisa Adorjan scores more
36%

FK Becej at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FK Becej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Becej vs Tisa Adorjan

FK Becej and Tisa Adorjan drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski stadion kraj Tise in Bečej.