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FK Becej vs Stanišić — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

FK Becej
FK Becej
FT
5 – 0
Stanišić
Stanišić
11/19/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 15Gradski stadion kraj Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

FK Becej64%
×Draw19%
Stanišić17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Becej
2.27
Stanišić
1.06

FK Becej creates 114% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 14 away

creates per match

FK Becej
1.69
Stanišić
0.57

allows per match

FK Becej
1.56
Stanišić
2.86

finishing

FK Becej+0.00on par
Stanišić+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Becej ↓

Stanišić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

FK Becej or draw
83%
FK Becej or Stanišić
81%
Draw or Stanišić
36%

Winning margin

FK Becej wins by 2+
41%
Stanišić wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FK Becej 1+ goals
90%
FK Becej 2+ goals
66%
FK Becej 3+ goals
39%
Stanišić 1+ goals
65%
Stanišić 2+ goals
29%
Stanišić 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FK Becej (draw refunded)
80%
Stanišić (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Becej at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

Stanišić away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Becej attack 1.69 + Stanišić defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.27

Stanišić attack 0.57 + FK Becej defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

FK Becej scores more
64%
level
19%
Stanišić scores more
17%

FK Becej at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FK Becej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Becej vs Stanišić

FK Becej beat Stanišić 5-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion kraj Tise in Bečej.