FK Becej 0–1 Sloven Ruma: Result & Stats

FK Becej

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sloven Ruma

3/2/2024

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 16Gradski stadion kraj Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

FK Becej37%

×Draw24%

Sloven Ruma39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK BecejExpected goals in this matchSloven Ruma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.56

FK Becej

1.50

Sloven Ruma

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 30 away

1.69

creates per match

1.57

1.56

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

FK Becej

1.69

Sloven Ruma

1.57

allows per match

FK Becej

1.56

Sloven Ruma

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Becej+0.00on par

Sloven Ruma+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Becej ↓

Sloven Ruma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FK Becej or draw

61%

FK Becej or Sloven Ruma

76%

Draw or Sloven Ruma

63%

Winning margin

FK Becej wins by 2+

17%

Sloven Ruma wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

FK Becej 1+ goals

78%

FK Becej 2+ goals

44%

FK Becej 3+ goals

19%

Sloven Ruma 1+ goals

79%

Sloven Ruma 2+ goals

46%

Sloven Ruma 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

FK Becej (draw refunded)

48%

Sloven Ruma (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Becej at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

Sloven Ruma away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Becej attack 1.69 + Sloven Ruma defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sloven Ruma attack 1.57 + FK Becej defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FK Becej scores more

37%

level

24%

Sloven Ruma scores more

39%

Sloven Ruma at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sloven Ruma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff