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FK Becej vs Sloboda Uzice — Prva Liga 2018

FK Becej
FK Becej
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sloboda Uzice
Sloboda Uzice
10/13/2018Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 11Gradski stadion kraj Tise (Bečej)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FK Becej50%
×Draw27%
Sloboda Uzice23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Becej
1.42
Sloboda Uzice
0.86

FK Becej creates 65% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 76 away

creates per match

FK Becej
1.26
Sloboda Uzice
0.62

allows per match

FK Becej
1.11
Sloboda Uzice
1.57

finishing

FK Becej+0.00on par
Sloboda Uzice+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Becej ↓

Sloboda Uzice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FK Becej or draw
77%
FK Becej or Sloboda Uzice
73%
Draw or Sloboda Uzice
50%

Winning margin

FK Becej wins by 2+
25%
Sloboda Uzice wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FK Becej 1+ goals
76%
FK Becej 2+ goals
41%
FK Becej 3+ goals
17%
Sloboda Uzice 1+ goals
58%
Sloboda Uzice 2+ goals
21%
Sloboda Uzice 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FK Becej (draw refunded)
69%
Sloboda Uzice (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Becej at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Sloboda Uzice away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.57 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Becej attack 1.26 + Sloboda Uzice defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.42

Sloboda Uzice attack 0.62 + FK Becej defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FK Becej scores more
50%
level
27%
Sloboda Uzice scores more
23%

FK Becej at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FK Becej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: FK Becej 3–0 Sloboda Uzice

FK Becej beat Sloboda Uzice 3-0 in Prva Liga on October 13, 2018.

The match was played at Gradski stadion kraj Tise (Bečej).