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FK Becej vs Sloboda Novi Kozarci — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

FK Becej
FK Becej
FT
4 – 0
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
5/29/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 37Gradski stadion kraj Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FK Becej56%
×Draw22%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Becej
1.97
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
1.18

FK Becej creates 67% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 19 away

creates per match

FK Becej
1.69
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
0.79

allows per match

FK Becej
1.56
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
2.26

finishing

FK Becej+0.00on par
Sloboda Novi Kozarci+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Becej ↓

Sloboda Novi Kozarci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FK Becej or draw
77%
FK Becej or Sloboda Novi Kozarci
78%
Draw or Sloboda Novi Kozarci
44%

Winning margin

FK Becej wins by 2+
33%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FK Becej 1+ goals
86%
FK Becej 2+ goals
58%
FK Becej 3+ goals
31%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 1+ goals
69%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 2+ goals
33%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FK Becej (draw refunded)
71%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Becej at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

Sloboda Novi Kozarci away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Becej attack 1.69 + Sloboda Novi Kozarci defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.97

Sloboda Novi Kozarci attack 0.79 + FK Becej defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FK Becej scores more
56%
level
22%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci scores more
23%

FK Becej at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FK Becej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Becej vs Sloboda Novi Kozarci

FK Becej beat Sloboda Novi Kozarci 4-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion kraj Tise in Bečej.