FK Becej 1–0 Sloboda DT: Result & Stats

FK Becej

FT

1 – 0

Sloboda DT

8/24/2024

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 2Gradski stadion kraj Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

FK Becej39%

×Draw25%

Sloboda DT36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK BecejExpected goals in this matchSloboda DT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.36

FK Becej

1.43

Sloboda DT

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 30 away

1.69

creates per match

1.17

1.56

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

FK Becej

1.69

Sloboda DT

1.17

allows per match

FK Becej

1.56

Sloboda DT

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Becej+0.00on par

Sloboda DT+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Becej ↓

Sloboda DT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

FK Becej or draw

64%

FK Becej or Sloboda DT

75%

Draw or Sloboda DT

61%

Winning margin

FK Becej wins by 2+

18%

Sloboda DT wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FK Becej 1+ goals

76%

FK Becej 2+ goals

42%

FK Becej 3+ goals

17%

Sloboda DT 1+ goals

74%

Sloboda DT 2+ goals

39%

Sloboda DT 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FK Becej (draw refunded)

52%

Sloboda DT (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Becej at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

Sloboda DT away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Becej attack 1.69 + Sloboda DT defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.43

Sloboda DT attack 1.17 + FK Becej defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FK Becej scores more

39%

level

25%

Sloboda DT scores more

36%

FK Becej at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FK Becej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff