Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FK Becej vs Sindjelic Beograd — Prva Liga 2018

FK Becej
FK Becej
FT
0 – 1
Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
8/18/2018Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 2Gradski stadion kraj Tise (Bečej)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FK Becej51%
×Draw26%
Sindjelic Beograd23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Becej
1.52
Sindjelic Beograd
0.93

FK Becej creates 63% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 34 away

creates per match

FK Becej
1.26
Sindjelic Beograd
0.74

allows per match

FK Becej
1.11
Sindjelic Beograd
1.79

finishing

FK Becej+0.00on par
Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Becej ↓

Sindjelic Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FK Becej or draw
77%
FK Becej or Sindjelic Beograd
74%
Draw or Sindjelic Beograd
49%

Winning margin

FK Becej wins by 2+
26%
Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FK Becej 1+ goals
78%
FK Becej 2+ goals
45%
FK Becej 3+ goals
20%
Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
61%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
24%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FK Becej (draw refunded)
69%
Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Becej at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Sindjelic Beograd away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Becej attack 1.26 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sindjelic Beograd attack 0.74 + FK Becej defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FK Becej scores more
51%
level
26%
Sindjelic Beograd scores more
23%

FK Becej at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FK Becej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Becej vs Sindjelic Beograd

Sindjelic Beograd beat FK Becej 1-0 in Prva Liga on August 18, 2018.

The match was played at Gradski stadion kraj Tise (Bečej).