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FK Becej vs RFK Novi Sad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

FK Becej
FK Becej
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
11/23/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 15Gradski stadion kraj Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FK Becej49%
×Draw23%
RFK Novi Sad28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Becej
1.81
RFK Novi Sad
1.31

FK Becej creates 38% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 15 away

creates per match

FK Becej
1.69
RFK Novi Sad
1.07

allows per match

FK Becej
1.56
RFK Novi Sad
1.93

finishing

FK Becej+0.00on par
RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Becej ↓

RFK Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FK Becej or draw
72%
FK Becej or RFK Novi Sad
77%
Draw or RFK Novi Sad
51%

Winning margin

FK Becej wins by 2+
27%
RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FK Becej 1+ goals
84%
FK Becej 2+ goals
54%
FK Becej 3+ goals
27%
RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
73%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
38%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FK Becej (draw refunded)
64%
RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Becej at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

RFK Novi Sad away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Becej attack 1.69 + RFK Novi Sad defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.81

RFK Novi Sad attack 1.07 + FK Becej defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FK Becej scores more
49%
level
23%
RFK Novi Sad scores more
28%

FK Becej at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FK Becej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: FK Becej 1–2 RFK Novi Sad

RFK Novi Sad beat FK Becej 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion kraj Tise in Bečej.