Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FK Becej vs Radnicki 1923 — Prva Liga 2018

FK Becej
FK Becej
FT
1 – 2
Radnicki 1923
Radnicki 1923
10/27/2018Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 13Gradski stadion kraj Tise (Bečej)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FK Becej39%
×Draw30%
Radnicki 192331%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Becej
1.14
Radnicki 1923
0.99

FK Becej creates 15% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 51 away

creates per match

FK Becej
1.26
Radnicki 1923
0.86

allows per match

FK Becej
1.11
Radnicki 1923
1.02

finishing

FK Becej+0.00on par
Radnicki 1923+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Becej ↓

Radnicki 1923 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

FK Becej or draw
69%
FK Becej or Radnicki 1923
70%
Draw or Radnicki 1923
61%

Winning margin

FK Becej wins by 2+
16%
Radnicki 1923 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FK Becej 1+ goals
68%
FK Becej 2+ goals
32%
FK Becej 3+ goals
11%
Radnicki 1923 1+ goals
63%
Radnicki 1923 2+ goals
26%
Radnicki 1923 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FK Becej (draw refunded)
55%
Radnicki 1923 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Becej at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Radnicki 1923 away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Becej attack 1.26 + Radnicki 1923 defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.14

Radnicki 1923 attack 0.86 + FK Becej defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FK Becej scores more
39%
level
30%
Radnicki 1923 scores more
31%

FK Becej at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FK Becej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Becej vs Radnicki 1923

Radnicki 1923 beat FK Becej 2-1 in Prva Liga on October 27, 2018.

The match was played at Gradski stadion kraj Tise (Bečej).